Autoregressive Distributed Lag Kurs Dan Ekspor Karet Remah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Nulhanuddin Nulhanuddin, Devi Andriyani

Abstract


This study aims to determine the effect of short-term and long-term exchange rates and crumb rubber exports on the economic growth of Indonesia. The data used are secondary data for 39 years from 1980 to 2018 accessed on www.world.bank.wdi.data.bank.org, www.pertanian.go.id, www.bps.go.id, and www.bps.go.id. The data analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with the help of EViews 10 software. The results show that the economic growth is stationary at the level and exchange rate and exports of stationary crumb rubber at the first difference level and have cointegration in the long-term relationship. The test results in the short-term analysis of the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, while in the long run, the exchange rate has a negative effect but insignificant, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia.

 

Keywords:

economic growth, exchange rates, exports and the ARDL approach.


 


Full Text:

PDF

References


Adiningsih, putra karim Basri, H. N. (2002). Analisis Faktor Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kurs. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik.

Astuti, R. D. (2014). Peranan suku bunga, harga aset, dan nilai tukar dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 15, 135–143.

Dritsaki, C., & Stiakakis, E. (2014). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, and Economic Growth in Croatia: A Time Series Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00701-1

Ginting, S. (2010). Prosedur Penelitian: Suatu Pendekatan Praktis. Edisi Revisi. Jakarta: PT. Rineka Cipta.

Gujarati, D. ., & Porter, D. . (2009). Dasar Dasar Ekonometrika (5th ed.). Salemba Empat.

Gujarati, D. N. (2012). Dasar Dasar Ekonomertika. Terjemahan Mangunsong, R.C., Salemba Empat, Buku 2.

Hariyani, H. F., Priyarsono, S. S., & Asmara, A. (2016). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, hlm. 32-44 Vol 5 No 2. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 5(1), 25–44.

Juanda, B. (2009). Metedologi Penelitian Ekonomi Dan Bisnis. IPB Press. Bogor.

Kartikasari, D. (2017). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues The Effect of Export, Import and Investment to Economic Growth of Riau Islands Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 663–667. http:www.econjournals.com

Kasmir. (2008). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. PT. Rajagrafindo Persada.

Kuncoro, M. (2007). Metode Kuantitatif: Teori dan Aplikasi Untuk Bisnis dan Ekonomi, Edisi Ketiga. In Jakarta: Erlangga.

Mankiw, N. G. (2003). Teori Makro Ekonomi Terjemahan. In Jakarta: PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Nasution, R. D. R. A. (2009). Volatilitas Nilai Tukar Rill, Instabilitas Ekspor Dan Pertumbuhan Output Indonesia Dalam Rezim Nilai Tukar Mengambang. Jurnal Depok, Universitas Indonesia.

Nizar, M. (2012). Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Jurnal Depok: Universitas Indonesia.

Pesaran, M., & Shin. (2001). Bound Testing Approachs To The Analysis Of Level Relationship. Cambridge: University Of Cambridge.

Salvatore, D. (2008). Theory And Problem Of Micro Economic Theory (Ahli Bahasa OlehRudi Sitompul (ed.); 3rd ed.). Erlangga.

Sari, D. K. (2019). PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA ( STUDI KASUS ERA JOKOWI – JK ).

Septiawan, D. A., Hidayat, R. R., & Sulasmiyati, S. (2016). Pengaruh Minyak Dunia, Inflasi, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia ( Studi Pada Tahun 2007 - 2014 ). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 40(2), 130–138. https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/pengaruh-minyak-dunia-inflasi-dan-nilai-tukar-terhadap-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-indonesia-studi-pada-tahu/

Sugiyono. (2012). Metode Penelitian Pendidikan: Pendekatan Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D. In Bandung: Alfabeta.

Sukirno, S. (2000). Pengantar Teori Ekonomi Makro. In Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.

Sutawijaya, A. (2010). Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 1980-2006. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 6(1), 14–27.

Tambunan, T. (2003). Perekonomian Indonesia: Beberapa Masalah Penting. In Jakarta: Penerbit Ghalia Indonesia.

Tang, B. (2015). Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach. China Economic Review, 34, 293–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2014.12.002

Widarjono, A. (2007). Ekonometrika: Teori Dan Aplikasi Untuk Ekonomi Dan Bisnis (Ekonisia (ed.)).

Wikipedia. (2019). Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia. www.wikipedia.org.

Yahya, A. H., Mohd, N., & Syahnur, S. (2015). Analysis of the Export-Base Commodity Supply on the Economic Growth in Aceh , Indonesia. 4(June), 56–67.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v3i2.3205

Article Metrics

 Abstract Views : 821 times
 PDF Downloaded : 359 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2020 Nulhanuddin Nulhanuddin, Devi Andriyani

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.