Perbandingan Metode Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Decomposition Untuk Meramalkan Persediaan Beras (Studi Kasus Divre Bulog Lhokseumawe)

Mursidah Mursidah, Yunina Yunina, Nurhasanah Nurhasanah, Desma Yuni

Abstract


 

This study aims to see the suitable forecasting method between the two Exponential Smoothing Methods and the Decomposition Method in predicting the BULOG Divre Lhokseumawe rice supply for 2019. The data used in this study are primary data, namely BULOG  rice supply data for 36 periods within 3 periods. YearTo achieve the research objectives, using the Exponential Smoothing method and the decomposition method with the calculation of errors consisting of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean squared deviaon (MSD). Based on the results of data analysis, it is known that the best forecasting method for predicting rice supplies in BULOG Divre Lhokseumawe is the Exponential Smoothing method. This method was chosen because it has the lowest error rate compared to the Decomposition method, namely with a MAPE value of 32, MAD of 1,3 and MSD of 3,5.

 

Keywords:  Inventory, Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing Method, Decomposite Method, MAPE, MAD, MSD


Full Text:

PDF

References


Aprilia, Theresia. 2014. Pembangunan Berbasis Masyarakat. Bandung: Alfabeta.

Badriwan, Zaki. 2000. Intermediate Accounting. Edisi Tujuh. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Fatimah 2015. Penerepan Metode Single Moving Average and Exsponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Permintaan Produk Meubel Jenis Coffe Tabled Klaten. Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Sebelas Maret.

Javedani, Hossein., Lee, M.H., Suhartono. 2011. An Evaluation of Some Classical Methods for Forecasting Electricity Usage on a Specific Problem. Journal of Statistical Modeling and Analytics. Vol. 2 : 1-10.

Krisnamurti, 2003. Keanekaragaman Pangan Sebuah Kebutuhan yang Mendesak. Makalah Seminar Nasional Untuk Mendukung Ketahanan Pangan.

Makridakis, S, dkk. 1999. Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Terjemahan dari Forecasting : Methods and Aplications, oleh Hari Suminto, Binarupa Aksara. Jakarta.

Makridakis. 1993. Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Jakarta. Erlangga

Nurmaulidar. 2016. Penerapan Metode Winter’s Exponential Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Persediaan Beras pada Perum Bulog Divre Aceh. Universitas Sriwijaya. Palembang.

Raharja, Alda. 2011. Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Penggunaan Waktu Telepon di PT. Telkomsel. Surabaya

Romi, Satria. 2015. Penerepan Metode Exsponential Smoothing untuk

Tranformasi Data dalam Peningkatan Akurasi neural Pada Produksi Emas.

Santoso. S. 2009. Peramalan Rata-rata. Jakarta: Rineka Cipta.

Sugiyono. 2017. Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif dan Kualitatif. Alfabeta CV. Bandung

Stevenson, W.J. Chuong, S.C. 2014. Menejemen Operasi Perspektif Asia, Edisi 9, Salemba Empat and MC Graw Hill Education, Jakarta.


Article Metrics

 Abstract Views : 841 times
 PDF Downloaded : 227 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.